Week 11 NFL Previews and Picks

“In this league, this year, no body knows anything!” – Al Michaels

The legendary commentator was on the mark again. This season has been one of the most unpredictable in recent history. There were so many back-door covers and stunning performances (both bad and good) in week 10 that it was a picker's nightmare. The worst place for crazy outcomes is in both West divisions, where who is good and who is bad seems to change every week. Denver, having been abysmal in its last two games came out and hammered the Chiefs, while Seattle bounced back from awfulness to beat the Cardinals on the road.

Week 11 throws up some classic grudge matches and can’t miss games, so let’s get down to it. Home teams in caps.

Chicago Bears (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS (Thursday Night Sky Sports 2, 1:20am)

I am still not quite sure how, after losing both Pennington and Henne before the third quarter, Miami were able to hold on against the Titans last week. But they cannot survive a whole game with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback against a tough Bears defence. As for Chicago, their offensive line is much improved and largely kept Cutler clean against the Vikings. While Miami’s defence has been impressive at times, they will need to carry the offence through large portions of this game and I just do not think they can do it.

Oakland Raiders (+7) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Oakland have been playing well recently and are coming off a bye week against a shell-shocked Steelers team. Pittsburgh did not play badly on Sunday night, but their patchwork offensive line was exposed by New England, and I fully expect Oakland to use the same plan to get to Big Ben. The Steelers were also weaker against the run on Sunday with ends, Keisel and Smith, out and their absence is set to continue and should open things up for an impressive Darren McFadden.

NEW YORK JETS (-7) over Houston Texans (Sky Sports 2, 6:00pm)

The Texans really cannot stop anyone through either skill or luck. Sanchez picked up a knock against the Browns on Sunday, but battled through and showed good poise in escaping about five sacks in their over-time victory. The Jets have been poor recently and needed 74 minutes to beat (and cover against) Cleveland, but they have been winning. Houston’s frailties on defence are starting to be just too great for the offence to cover up. This could be the death nail in what had been a promising season as well as Gary Kubiak’s reign in Houston.

Baltimore Ravens (-10) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Baltimore had a chance to knock off Ryan and the Falcons last Thursday, but could not get the defensive stop they needed. It is not often that that is said about this Ravens team and you can be sure they spent the extra few days rest brooding, just waiting to get back out on the field. They are still top of the AFC North and amongst the best teams in the NFL. Now that Buffalo have got a win to their name, Carolina can rightfully take over the mantle of the league’s worst team. Clausen was not terrible last week, but he was hardly impressive either, and will need to show real signs that he can perform at the level expected from a starter if the Panthers are not to go after a QB come draft day.


TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) over Washington Redskins

This line is a little inflated after the disastrous Monday night performance from Washington’s defence, but they were truly abysmal in the hammering they took from Vick and the Eagles. But it does not get any easier with Chris Johnson, Randy Moss and Vince Young waiting to get stuck in. The Titans need a win here to keep pace in the division because the wild cards are almost certainly not coming from the AFC South this year. Another week for Moss to be integrated with the team. He did not see many targets in the loss to Miami, but was effective in keeping the safeties back and opening up room for Johnson. I expect to see a bit of a bounce back from Washington - if Haynesworth was ever going to be motivated to play hard it would be this game.

Detroit Lions (+6.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Detroit continue to play tough and keep games close, which is why I think that they will be able to cover here. Dallas benefited from a sloppy Giants performance on Sunday - receivers were running so open that Kitna looked like a pro-bowler. The pressure of not having won at home yet might get to the Cowboys here and a bad start will see the fans jump on the back of interim Head Coach Jason Garrett. Dez Bryant might be having the best rookie season for a WR since Randy Moss came into the league in 1998 - this guy is a serious ball player.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Here we go again. Favre is 11-1 at home with the Vikings, but this is probably going to be the last chance for Rodgers to beat Favre, and if you do not think he is pumped up to do a double over the old man, then you are crazy. Minnesota were poor in Chicago last week, while the Packers have had a much needed chance to rest up and get healthy. The Vikings will need the defensive line, which has perhaps been the most disappointing unit for them this year, to step up and pressure Rodgers, otherwise it could be a long day for the Vikes secondary. This will be a very close game and could well come down to who has the ball last.


Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over CINNCINATI BENGALS

WARNING: GUS JOHNSON GAME! The explosive commentator has been involved in crazy finishes the last few weeks, culminating in the hail mary win for Jacksonville last week. This trend is one of the best things about the NFL. If you haven’t heard Gus Johnson call a game you need to watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj5HtJidMZ8

Buffalo finally got the win their recent play has deserved and will be riding high. The Colts left the back door open last week and the Bengals covered by a point in a game they were widely outplayed in. Palmer continues to take three quarters of football to warm up and it cannot be long before Marv Lewis makes a change there - it might be the only thing that can save his job. The Bills are 1-2 in the last three games and all have been decided by three points or less - I see no reason why this will not go along the same lines and even end in a Buffalo win if they can get Fred Jackson rolling like he was last week.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-1) over Cleveland Browns

Cleveland continue to play tough and, barring a fumble in OT, would have knocked off the Jets last week. Colt McCoy has made things happen and looked the consummate Pro since coming in. Of course, having the battering ram that is Peyton Hillis behind him has helped! Jacksonville got a much needed win against Houston last week in the aforementioned hail mary finish. That play works maybe once in 200 tries and the Jags got lucky, but they have started to click on offence now and Garrard is making good reads, while Mo-Jo is getting going in the back field and should be a touch too much for the Browns.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) over Arizona Cardinals

Kansas are nowhere near as good as they were just two weeks ago, but hosting Arizona might just be the tonic they need to get back on track in the wild AFC West. The Cardinals defence is playing so badly at the moment that it is overshadowing the shambles at quarterback, which is a very worrying situation to be in. Charles and Jones are still running hard, while Cassel has started to hook up with WR Dwayne Bowe. The pair have eight touchdowns in the last five games. This one could get embarrassing for Arizona.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-12) over Seattle Seahawks

A well rested Saints team, a packed out Superdome and an up and down Seahawks team that has lost heavily to the last two competitive teams they have played. This is a combination that Drew Brees could feast on. Since the second half against Pittsburgh, the Saints have looked like their superbowl-winning selves and need to start stringing big wins together as the NFC South is now the closest division in the NFL. Reggie Bush could be back to face his old USC coach Pete Carroll - it is probably best for the both of them if they do not get snapped together this weekend.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over ST LOUIS RAMS

This is a game that the best team in the NFC should be winning. Matt Ryan was stunning in Thursday's win against the Ravens, and Roddy White continues to play at a high level. They should do well against a very iffy Rams secondary. However, the Rams are much tougher prospect at home, having gone 4-1 there so far this season and Bradford continues to impress. But the Rams have only scored 20+ points in a game once this year and you get the feeling 20 just will not cut it against the no frills, highly efficient football of Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

Troy Smith has got the starting job locked down in San Fran for now and has been quite impressive, at least in comparison to what has come before him. Tampa have traditionally struggled going out to the west coast but this is a young team playing with no fear. LeGarrette Blount is playing up to the first round billing he had before losing his head in Oregon, while Josh Freeman continues to impress. Kellen Winslow got his first touchdown of the year and once he starts to get involved more in this offence the Bucs will really start rolling.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts (Sky Sports 2, 9:15pm)

The marquee match up of the season. The best two quarterbacks of their generation etc etc. Enough has been written about Brady vs Manning to fill several libraries, so let us talk about other things. Sunday night was a coaching clinic from Bill Belichick as he devised a game plan to absolutely dominate the Steelers. The Patriots exposed a weak Steelers offensive line and could well do the same to a Colts line that has deteriorated from seasons past. But blitzing Manning is a very dangerous thing to do - he is hooking up with no-name receivers out there and making them look like superstars. This game could go either way and is a classic “Last team with the ball wins”. Normally I would take the points here but after seeing a fired up Brady put in a vintage performance last week, I am taking him and his 24 straight wins in Foxboro.


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over New York Giants (Channel 4, 1:30am)

Michael Vick is now a serious MVP candidate after ripping into the Redskins on Monday night. He finished that game with a staggering 413 yards of offence and six touchdowns, and the most impressive thing was how he worked through his progressions. In his previous incarnation, if Vick’s first choice receiver was covered, he would pull it down and look to run. Now he is comfortable in the pocket, keeps his eyes down field and, only as a last choice, takes off. As for the Giants, it was rather fitting that the lights went out at the start of the second half against Dallas, as it was an ugly performance and is reminiscent of their end of season collapse last year. The winner of this game will have sole possession of the NFC East.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-10) over Denver Broncos

I have no idea what to think about the Broncos. They had been just awful until they started lighting it up against Chiefs. The Chargers gained ground in the AFC West last week despite not playing and have finished the season strongly under Norv Turner. Rivers is still the leading MVP candidate, but will continue to play without his favourite targets in Floyd and Gates. These games are usually high scoring affairs, but if the Chargers have sorted out their special teams woes, then that defence can smother any opposition.

Last Week: 5-9-0

Toby Durant

Vettel clinches the title in the desert to round off a memorable season in Formula 1

After travelling the equivalent of five times around the world, the 2010 Formula 1 Drivers title came down to 55 laps around a man-made marina, just 260 miles from where it all began.

Exactly eight months after the sport of Formula 1 was widely proclaimed as dead following a processional race in Bahrain, this season has provided the most compelling sporting contest of the year.

Coming into the final race at the state of the art Yas Marina circuit, championship leader Fernando Alonso, starting in third, was in by far the strongest position. If he could keep ahead of Mark Webber, a fourth place finish would be enough for him to take the World Championship.

It was all going according to plan for the Spaniard through the first few corners, even though Jenson Button was able to pass him through the first corner. However, the slightest of touches from team-mate Nico Rosberg sent Michael Schumacher spinning at the turn 4-5 chicane, leaving him pointing the wrong way and at the mercy of the on-coming flow of cars. Antonio Liuzzi, who has been unlucky with incidents all year, found himself with nowhere to go but straight into the seven time world champion - his car riding up the Mercedes and coming dangerously close to the German's helmet.


The ensuing safety car period led to many of those in the midfield diving into the pits to get their mandatory tyre change out of the way - a move that would greatly affect the ensuing tactical decisions of the leading pack.

Mark Webber found himself unable to pass Alonso in the early running, and with his super-soft tyres graining, decided to jump into the pits early. Ferrari quickly reacted to this and decided to bring Alonso in a few laps later to cover off what they saw as the main threat to the Spaniard's chances.

The move turned out to be fatal to the chances of both drivers. They both ended up stuck behind one of the continually impressive Renaults, who became Vettel’s best friends during the race. Vitaly Petrov, fighting for a race seat in 2011, was able to fend off Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber, while Robert Kubica, who has perhaps been the driver of the season, frustrated Lewis Hamilton for a long time before ducking into the pits.

Once it became clear that Alonso could do nothing about Petrov, the only thing that could beat Vettel was his car. Having suffered so many technical problems during the season, from a spark plug issue in Bahrain to a total engine failure in South Korea, it was definitely in the back of his mind as he eased off towards the end of the race. He was almost nursing it home for fear of another serious problem finally scuppering a title bid that had stuttered and faltered all year, to the extent that Vettel had yet to lead the championship in 2010. That is until the chequered flag fell in the floodlights of Abu Dhabi and he was crowned World Champion.


His rivals, Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber, were philosophical about the outcome of the race, and the championship in general:

"We did what we could but in the end it wasn't enough," said Webber. "When you come so close and just miss out on the top it's a shame, but I tried my absolute hardest."

"This is sport - sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Next year we try again,” said the Spaniard, who immediately after the finish of the race had gestured at Petrov from his Ferreri, as if to indicate Petrov had done something wrong in racing the Championship contender.

Alonso had every reason to be frustrated about the outcome of the race given how the decision to bring him in played out.

Webber, once he cleared the Toro Rosso of Jaime Alguersuari, was putting in fast laps with the harder tyres, and given the slight graining on Alonso’s option tyres, they brought him in to cover off the faster Red Bull of Webber. Almost immediately it became clear this was a mistake as Petrov’s Renault, having already stopped under the safety car, became a moving road block to the Spaniard.

After the race Alonso refused to publicly disparage the team’s strategy in post-race interviews, although his body language said otherwise. And during the post-race presentations, he could be seen talking to Team Principal Stefano Domenicali and race engineer Andrea Stella, who were clearly explaining why they made the call that they did and how they ended up covering off the wrong Red Bull.

It is, of course, easy with the comfort of hindsight to say they made the wrong call. And had they not pulled Alonso in and later found him behind Webber, he would have finished in 5th and still lost the title. In the end, it was the competitiveness of the McLarens that lost this one for Alonso. Had they been the non-factors they were for most of the tail-end of this season, Fernando Alonso would be celebrating his third championship.


Team Principal, Christian Horner, who had refused all season to declare any favouritism existed within Red Bull, sat impassively on the pit wall as Vettel crossed the line, waiting for the confirmation that Alonso would not cross the line in the fourth place he needed. Only then did he and technical director, Adrian Newey, celebrate the completion of the mission they set out on in 2005 when Red Bull Racing came into being.

In the end, this thrilling season has seen the crowning of the youngest World Champion in Formula 1 history. Vettel had been part of the Red Bull young drivers' programme before breaking into Formula 1 with their sister team Toro Rosso, where he became the youngest race winner at the Italian Grand Prix in 2008 - a race that alerted the world to his seemingly limitless potential.

Vettel has often been accused of being overly aggressive in his driving style, and this season has been guilty of making careless errors such as those in Istanbul and Spa that resulted in non-finishes. But to say he is an unworthy winner would be doing him a great injustice.

While Webber has been fast in fits and starts this year, the 34-year old seemed to crack under the bright lights of Yas Marina this weekend, while Alonso has wrung the most out of his Ferrari, but been consistently behind the stunningly fast Red Bull.

2011 will see five world champions lining up on the grid in Bahrain, and with Mercedes feeling confident of being fully amongst the top three of Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren, it could be an even tighter and more fascinating season than 2010. But this season will live long in the memory as one of the most unpredictable and exciting championship races the sport has seen.

Toby Durant

Week 10 NFL Previews and Picks

The NFL continues to throw the leaders back into the pack. We now have six two-loss teams after Cleveland walloped New England last week. Four of the league's best teams face-off against each other this week as Atlanta hosts Baltimore on Thursday, while New England stays in the AFC North to play at Pittsburgh in the big Sunday night clash (1:30am kick-off, live on Channel 4).

The AFC, with four of the 6-2 teams, will settle out over the next few weeks as the contenders face-off against each other. But the Giants and Falcons do not meet this year and will continue to stake their claims as the NFC’s best. At the wrong end of the table, Detroit and Buffalo will battle it out as the Bills try to avoid the ignominy of a winless season. There are eight divisional matches this week, which always poses a problem to predict, but here we go. As always, the home team is in caps…

Baltimore Ravens (+1) over ATLANTA FALCONS

The first Thursday night game of the season will provide a tough test for both teams playing on a short week. Atlanta managed to stave off a Tampa comeback in the Georgia Dome last week, but had to play every minute of that game hard. Baltimore were able to relax as they rolled over Miami. Both are 6-2 and looking good, but the Ravens finally have Ray Rice going - he picked up 180 yards of total offence last week as he and McGahee punished the Dolphins. The Falcons are an impressive home team, but the Ravens' defence is looking back to its dominant self with Ed Reed back in the secondary making plays.

Houston Texans (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

These are two of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the NFL. Both at 4-4, Jacksonville has lost their games by a combined 99 points, while Houston are coming off the back of consecutive losses. Andre Johnson is playing hurt and his numbers are down on recent years, but Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing and should give the offence enough. The Texans' problems defending the pass are well documented, but Garrard will provide an easier test than Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers have in the last two games. A must win if either team wants to remain in the hotly contested AFC South race.


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Colts are 3-0 against the spread at home this year, whilst Cincinnati are 1-3 against it on the road. As long as Manning has Wayne out there, it does not seem to matter who else is running routes for him. The T.O. – Ocho Cinco show continues to disappoint for the Bengals, who were well beaten by the Steelers, before again putting up numbers in garbage time when the game was over. Carson Palmer is now five seasons removed from his career year and has had about 30 interceptions dropped this season. He is not good any more folks! Time for the Bengals' front office to start thinking about drafting a new QB, and they could be in a very good position to do so come April.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Randy Moss Show rolls into Miami for the second time this year. He did not catch a single pass in week three in Miami, which turned out to be his last game in New England. He has had the benefit of Tennessee’s bye week to learn another system and needs to replace an injured Kenny Britt this week. Miami have been poor at home this year and Chad Henne has to play another tough defence this week after going against Pittsburgh in week six and Baltimore last week. The Titans have made a living getting great pressure from just the front four and I expect that trend to continue. Miami were able to keep Chris Johnson to a season low 3.6 yards a carry last year and will need to repeat that performance it they are to claim a first home win of the season.

CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Minnesota Vikings

After the Packers beat Favre in Lambeau earlier this year, Chicago may now be the place where he is most loathed. The Vikings' players seem to have had enough of their coach, Brad Childress, now and his job is as precarious as their play-off chances. A loss here and Childress could be shown the door quicker than Barack Obama at a Tea Party convention. Chicago are 5-3 somehow. They have not played well since grinding out a Monday Night win against Green Bay in week three, but they seem to have sorted their offensive line problems out, while the Vikes defensive line has struggled mightily this year. I expect the Bears to pull another close win out.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Detroit Lions

The Bills have lost their last three games by a total of nine points and, given their upcoming schedule, this could be their last chance to avoid 0-16. Detroit are going to have to start 3rd string QB, Drew Stanton, this week after Matthew Stafford suffered a suspected grade three separation of his right shoulder. If they do not invest in their offensive line soon, they could find Stafford’s promising career never takes off. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play well and might just make the Bills front office think twice before jumping on Stanford’s Andrew Luck in the draft.


New York Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Cleveland came off their bye week swinging against New England and caught the Patriots uncharacteristically off guard in their blowout win. Now Mangini has another ex-employer in his sights, and seems to have gotten them at just the right time. The Jets have struggled in the past two weeks and only got the win in Detroit due to Ndamukong Suh having to take an extra point. Colt McCoy is making things happen in his first three starts with the Browns and owns wins over Drew Brees and Tom Brady. However, the Jets play much tougher defence than the Saints or Patriots, and I do not think Peyton Hillis is going to find anything like the success he did last week.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers

The Bucs came very to taking control of the NFC South last week and need a win to keep up with the Falcons now. Carolina are just a team in turmoil - if it wasn’t for the mess in Dallas, these guys would be getting much more coverage. They have flip-flopped all year between Matt Moore and rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, with neither being even slightly impressive. They are very soft on defence and have now lost starting MLB Dan Connor. Rookie running back LeGarrette Blount has been impressive when he has been given the ball, and is challenging Cadillac Williams for the starting job. Tampa might not be the best team in the NFC as Head Coach Raheem Morris stated a few weeks ago, but with the young core in place, it will not be long before he is not the only one thinking they are.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over DENVER BRONCOS

Kansas threw away a promising start against Oakland and need to see more from QB Matt Cassel if they are to stay ahead of the surging Raiders and Chargers. Denver are coming off a bad performance in London two weeks ago and need to do something to turn around their struggling defence. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will be licking their lips in anticipation of repeating Darren McFadden’s career day against this team, who are struggling for an identity on defence and seem to be suffering mightily from the pre-season loss of Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers.

St Louis Rams (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Troy Smith will keep the starting job after his highlight reel of a fourth quarter in London. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner faces off against the 2008 winner, who is looking like he has been in the NFL for years. Both teams have had a bye week to get healthy and prepare for this one, and while the Rams are winless on the road in a long time, this could be their best chance of breaking that duck. Both teams need the win with the NFC West very much still up for grabs.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Arizona conspired to throw away a 24-10 4th quarter lead against Minnesota last week. Injury to Matt Hasselbeck handed Charlie Whitehurst his first NFL start after five years in the league, which should have been a clue as to what to expect, because Whitehurst was just awful against the Giants last week. The injuries on Seattle’s defensive line will not help against an Arizona team who are at least decent at home and are still finding a way to get Larry Fitzgerald the ball, despite the mess at quarterback this season. Arizona have been scoring a lot of points on returns, which has covered some of the holes on offence, but that can not be relied upon, so it is a case of buyer beware if you are thinking of taking the Cards this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Well Wade Phillips has gone and Jason Garrett is promoted to Head Coach for at least the rest of the season. However, the problems in Dallas are much deeper than simply the head coach. The players, some with multiple Pro-Bowls to their names, gave up on this season a long time ago, and any prospective new Head Coach (Bill Cowher and John Gruden are the front runners) will need to take a long hard look and see if that is the type of character they want on their team. As for the Giants, they continue to impress on both sides of the ball. Their pass-rush is fearsome, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks continue to make live very easy for Eli Manning. The Giants are not making many mistakes or taking many penalties - both signs of a very well drilled and confident team. They still have home and away games against Philadelphia and Washington to come, so they are by no means sure of a division title, but they are certainly going to be hard to stop.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) over New England Patriots

New England need to fix their defence. And that is something that is rarely said about a Bill Belichick defence. They simply cannot get off the field and are 32nd in 3rd down stops. Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to look impressive with Roethlisberger back at the helm and play tough defence. Expect to see Troy Polamalu spending much more time around the line of scrimmage with the Patriots' lack of a legitimate deep threat. There will be big hits aplenty in this one - James Harrison and Brandon Meriweather have accounted for $120,000 in fines for crunching tackles during this season. The Patriots host Indianapolis next week and cannot afford to get caught looking ahead like they did last week.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Michael Vick experience is the most exciting show in the NFL today. If you have not seen his play this year, you absolutely must. In his previous incarnation at Atlanta, Vick was a run-first Quarterback with a habit of launching the ball pretty much anywhere, but his transformation into a pocket QB who can also run has been a successful one. You have to defend the pass first now, especially with the threats of Jackson and Maclin at WR. Last week, Vick led Philly to a close win over Indianapolis and looked like he could take off for 12 yards anytime he wanted. As for Washington, where to begin? After Shanahan mysteriously benched McNabb in the last two minutes against Detroit in favour of Rex Grossman, and then gave several different explanations afterwards, it is hard to know what to expect from the Redskins as they come off their bye week. McNabb has said that claims that he did not know the offence well enough are ridiculous, and apparently the air has been cleared between him and his coach, but we will see. In the reverse fixture, Washington came out on top, but they did not play well and knocked Vick out of the game. A healthy Vick should be too much for the Skins.

Last week: 8-4-1

Toby Durant

Week 9 NFL Previews and Picks

BUFFALO BILLS (+3) over Chicago Bears

Buffalo are a better team than we think they are. Two over-time road losses in the last two weeks should give confidence to the winless Bills, whilst Chicago have been making opposing defences look great all year. Unless they have spent their bye week fixing the offensive-line problems, expect Cutler to be doing his best “deer in the middle of the M25” impression again.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS

San Diego finally got a win after putting up big numbers. Their special team is still a shambles, but not as much as this Texans' defence. Houston ranks dead last in pass defence, while the Chargers are doing great things against run. But the numbers have not gone with San Diego this year. Approach with care, Houston need the win too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over ATLANTA FALCONS

JOSH FREEMAN JUST WINS FOOTBALL GAMES!!! But maybe not this one. Matt Ryan is 16-1 in the Georgia Dome during the regular season and Roddy White is playing MVP level football right now. With the Saints looking themselves again, both teams need a win here to keep a nose ahead. I think Freeman, another MVP candidate, should keep this one close, but Atlanta pulls it out.


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-9) over Arizona Cardinals

This is a clear stay away game. Favre got banged up again in Foxboro, Harvin is hurt and Brad Childress seems to have gone mad after cutting Moss four weeks after trading a 3rd round pick for him. Arizona have been terrible on the road and have a lot of issues at quarterback themselves, but Minnesota’s defence has not been anything like it has in previous years. I’m very unsure about this pick.

New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT LIONS

Rex Ryan talks a good game, but he coached a bad one last week. You do not call a fake on 4th and 18 in a clear field-position game. Expect a big Jets bounce back here - they will pound the football all game with Greene and LT while taking away Calvin Johnson and getting after Stafford. Look for Detroit to try and take away the run and make Sanchez beat them, but I don't think they can do it. As talented as Suh is, I just cannot see Detroit hanging in on this one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) over Miami Dolphins

Baltimore have quietly won four of their last five, with the only loss coming in OT against New England. Miami have struggled to get Touchdowns recently, kicking 13 field goals in their last three games. Baltimore’s front 7 will swarm on the running game and make Henne put it up. And oh yeah, there’s a healthy Ed Reed back there.

New England Patriots (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

I’m worried about this one. The Patriots have been getting the breaks and playing mistake free football on offence while the defence has been in bend but don’t break mode. Mangini will have had this game highlighted when the schedules were announced, and with the bye week to prepare for another match-up against his old master, the Browns could have a few tricks up their sleeve. Then again, any of McCoy, Delhomme or Wallace really doesn’t scare me.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Saints are back. Drew Brees was in top form during the second half of the Halloween special vs Pittsburgh Sunday night, while the Panthers just stink. This line could be 14 and I would still take it. Carolina played them close in week 4 in the Superdome, but that was a different Saints team - this one looks like the defending Superbowl Champs.


New York Giants (-6.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Giants were rolling before their bye week, and are now rested up for a trip to noisy Qwest field. Seattle are a different team at home, so this is no sure thing. However, they are banged up again and the Giants have been playing good football on both sides of the ball. Hakeem Nicks is playing almost as well as Roddy White has recently.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Another tough one to call this week. Oakland have put up 92 points in their last 2 games while Kansas seem a little off. The Chiefs are 1st in rushing, last in passing so you know what their going to do - it just depends if Oakland can stop it. Darren McFadden is looking more and more like the 4th overall pick the Raiders spent on him in 2008 as he carves off 5.5 yards a carry.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

It does not matter who is on the end of his passes, Peyton Manning makes them look GOOD. The Eagles are better on defence than Houston, and Asante Samuel made his name on good performances against Manning, but the Colts will have too much here. Vick is starting, which makes this a must-watch game. However, expect the Eagles to be playing from behind for a lot of this game, and that opens things up for Freeney and Mathis to wreak havoc.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8) over Dallas Cowboys

Dallas are no longer an under-achieving good team. They are a bad team, and that is being nice. The problem is not just the absence of Tony Romo; if Garrard is launching touchdown passes to uncovered receivers, then you have got issues. Especially when you are going up to Lambeau to face a Green Bay team coming off the back of two massive wins. The Packers defence finally found its 2009 form in shutting out the Jets on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Carson Palmer is a bad quarterback and Pittsburgh eat bad QBs for breakfast. Do not let the stats fool you, Palmer isn’t the guy he used to be - his numbers have been put up when the game was already lost. The absence of Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith is clearly big for Pittsburgh, as seen by the inability to pressure Brees with the front three last week, but Cincy have very little about them this season.

Toby Durant

Tough Decisions Ahead for Red Bull

In the aftermath of the Korean Grand Prix at Yeongam, Red Bull Racing has been put in a position they had clearly hoped not to be in all year. Back Mark Webber or lose out on a first Driver's World Championship for the team.

Mark Webber finds himself 11 points behind new leader Fernando Alonso. Meaning that wins in Sao Paulo and Abu Dhabi would crown the 34-year-old Australian champion, regardless of what Alonso and Ferrari do. However, Sebastian Vettel is a near un-conquerable 25 points off the top and would need help from both his teammate and both McLarens to take the championship.

Vettel has been Red Bull’s man since racing for the Red Bull sponsored Mucke Motorsport team in Formula 3, winning the title with them in 2004. He joined Toro Rosso, Red Bull’s sister team, in 2007 and has built up a close relationship with owner Dietrich Mateschitz during his time with the team.


Vettel and Webber have been taking turns at being the fastest man all year, with varying reasons as to why they are not topping the driver standings. Vettel’s being mechanical, whilst Webber’s more spectacular, especially his aerial exit in Valencia. Whilst these crashes can be marked as a negative in the Australian's column, one discounts his skill at their peril.

While this season has been enthralling, it has had the shortest memory of any I can remember. Webber’s drive in Monaco was of championship calibre; the way he dealt with the obvious favouritism towards Vettel during the Silverstone Grand Prix was a response worthy of Michael Schumacher in his pomp.

Vettel has not been faultless either. His error in Hungary of falling too far behind the safety car handed Webber a win and second to Alonso while his crash with Button in Spa greatly damaged his title chances.

Reports out of Germany are that Team Principal Christian Horner is under huge pressure to both win the Driver's and Constructor's titles having had the biggest car advantage seen in years. But Ferrari’s ability to simply back Alonso as early as the German Grand Prix and order Massa aside has been a great advantage for them, while both Red Bull and McLaren have tried to allow their drivers to race and compete all year. As a result, they find themselves off the Spaniard's pace.


Directly after the race in South Korea, Horner said, “I haven’t had time to look at all the mathematics and scenarios… But it’s something obviously we will look at pretty closely between now and Brazil.”

The fact that one non-finish from Alonso can put Vettel right back into the battle, and that two race wins for the young German would move him above Webber on race wins, will make justifying a whole hearted backing of Webber hard to sell to the pro-Vettel hierarchy.

A non-finish from Alonso however is very unlikely - he has been in this position before and knows what it takes to close out a championship. The smart money will be on Alonso or Webber to take this hard-fought title now. Vettel will be back to challenge again, but Webber seems to know this is his last chance.


Having taken victory in Brazil last year Webber will be confident he can get back on top, but he has had trouble passing his teammate if Vettel gets around the first corner ahead. And with the points difference being only 3 between 2nd and 3rd, only a race win will realistically be enough for the soft spoken Australian.

Vettel is the future of this team without a doubt, and will challenge for titles in years to come if he can control his hot-headed nature, but Webber is the present. You get the feeling that Horner knows this, he just has to convince Mateschitz and the rest of the bosses that it’s the best way to go.

Toby Durant