The AFC, with four of the 6-2 teams, will settle out over the next few weeks as the contenders face-off against each other. But the Giants and Falcons do not meet this year and will continue to stake their claims as the NFC’s best. At the wrong end of the table, Detroit and Buffalo will battle it out as the Bills try to avoid the ignominy of a winless season. There are eight divisional matches this week, which always poses a problem to predict, but here we go. As always, the home team is in caps…
Baltimore Ravens (+1) over ATLANTA FALCONS
The first Thursday night game of the season will provide a tough test for both teams playing on a short week. Atlanta managed to stave off a Tampa comeback in the Georgia Dome last week, but had to play every minute of that game hard. Baltimore were able to relax as they rolled over Miami. Both are 6-2 and looking good, but the Ravens finally have Ray Rice going - he picked up 180 yards of total offence last week as he and McGahee punished the Dolphins. The Falcons are an impressive home team, but the Ravens' defence is looking back to its dominant self with Ed Reed back in the secondary making plays.
Houston Texans (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
These are two of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the NFL. Both at 4-4, Jacksonville has lost their games by a combined 99 points, while Houston are coming off the back of consecutive losses. Andre Johnson is playing hurt and his numbers are down on recent years, but Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing and should give the offence enough. The Texans' problems defending the pass are well documented, but Garrard will provide an easier test than Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers have in the last two games. A must win if either team wants to remain in the hotly contested AFC South race.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Colts are 3-0 against the spread at home this year, whilst Cincinnati are 1-3 against it on the road. As long as Manning has Wayne out there, it does not seem to matter who else is running routes for him. The T.O. – Ocho Cinco show continues to disappoint for the Bengals, who were well beaten by the Steelers, before again putting up numbers in garbage time when the game was over. Carson Palmer is now five seasons removed from his career year and has had about 30 interceptions dropped this season. He is not good any more folks! Time for the Bengals' front office to start thinking about drafting a new QB, and they could be in a very good position to do so come April.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Randy Moss Show rolls into Miami for the second time this year. He did not catch a single pass in week three in Miami, which turned out to be his last game in New England. He has had the benefit of Tennessee’s bye week to learn another system and needs to replace an injured Kenny Britt this week. Miami have been poor at home this year and Chad Henne has to play another tough defence this week after going against Pittsburgh in week six and Baltimore last week. The Titans have made a living getting great pressure from just the front four and I expect that trend to continue. Miami were able to keep Chris Johnson to a season low 3.6 yards a carry last year and will need to repeat that performance it they are to claim a first home win of the season.
CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Minnesota Vikings
After the Packers beat Favre in Lambeau earlier this year, Chicago may now be the place where he is most loathed. The Vikings' players seem to have had enough of their coach, Brad Childress, now and his job is as precarious as their play-off chances. A loss here and Childress could be shown the door quicker than Barack Obama at a Tea Party convention. Chicago are 5-3 somehow. They have not played well since grinding out a Monday Night win against Green Bay in week three, but they seem to have sorted their offensive line problems out, while the Vikes defensive line has struggled mightily this year. I expect the Bears to pull another close win out.
BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Detroit Lions
The Bills have lost their last three games by a total of nine points and, given their upcoming schedule, this could be their last chance to avoid 0-16. Detroit are going to have to start 3rd string QB, Drew Stanton, this week after Matthew Stafford suffered a suspected grade three separation of his right shoulder. If they do not invest in their offensive line soon, they could find Stafford’s promising career never takes off. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play well and might just make the Bills front office think twice before jumping on Stanford’s Andrew Luck in the draft.
New York Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Cleveland came off their bye week swinging against New England and caught the Patriots uncharacteristically off guard in their blowout win. Now Mangini has another ex-employer in his sights, and seems to have gotten them at just the right time. The Jets have struggled in the past two weeks and only got the win in Detroit due to Ndamukong Suh having to take an extra point. Colt McCoy is making things happen in his first three starts with the Browns and owns wins over Drew Brees and Tom Brady. However, the Jets play much tougher defence than the Saints or Patriots, and I do not think Peyton Hillis is going to find anything like the success he did last week.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Bucs came very to taking control of the NFC South last week and need a win to keep up with the Falcons now. Carolina are just a team in turmoil - if it wasn’t for the mess in Dallas, these guys would be getting much more coverage. They have flip-flopped all year between Matt Moore and rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, with neither being even slightly impressive. They are very soft on defence and have now lost starting MLB Dan Connor. Rookie running back LeGarrette Blount has been impressive when he has been given the ball, and is challenging Cadillac Williams for the starting job. Tampa might not be the best team in the NFC as Head Coach Raheem Morris stated a few weeks ago, but with the young core in place, it will not be long before he is not the only one thinking they are.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over DENVER BRONCOS
Kansas threw away a promising start against Oakland and need to see more from QB Matt Cassel if they are to stay ahead of the surging Raiders and Chargers. Denver are coming off a bad performance in London two weeks ago and need to do something to turn around their struggling defence. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will be licking their lips in anticipation of repeating Darren McFadden’s career day against this team, who are struggling for an identity on defence and seem to be suffering mightily from the pre-season loss of Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers.
St Louis Rams (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Troy Smith will keep the starting job after his highlight reel of a fourth quarter in London. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner faces off against the 2008 winner, who is looking like he has been in the NFL for years. Both teams have had a bye week to get healthy and prepare for this one, and while the Rams are winless on the road in a long time, this could be their best chance of breaking that duck. Both teams need the win with the NFC West very much still up for grabs.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks
Arizona conspired to throw away a 24-10 4th quarter lead against Minnesota last week. Injury to Matt Hasselbeck handed Charlie Whitehurst his first NFL start after five years in the league, which should have been a clue as to what to expect, because Whitehurst was just awful against the Giants last week. The injuries on Seattle’s defensive line will not help against an Arizona team who are at least decent at home and are still finding a way to get Larry Fitzgerald the ball, despite the mess at quarterback this season. Arizona have been scoring a lot of points on returns, which has covered some of the holes on offence, but that can not be relied upon, so it is a case of buyer beware if you are thinking of taking the Cards this week.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Well Wade Phillips has gone and Jason Garrett is promoted to Head Coach for at least the rest of the season. However, the problems in Dallas are much deeper than simply the head coach. The players, some with multiple Pro-Bowls to their names, gave up on this season a long time ago, and any prospective new Head Coach (Bill Cowher and John Gruden are the front runners) will need to take a long hard look and see if that is the type of character they want on their team. As for the Giants, they continue to impress on both sides of the ball. Their pass-rush is fearsome, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks continue to make live very easy for Eli Manning. The Giants are not making many mistakes or taking many penalties - both signs of a very well drilled and confident team. They still have home and away games against Philadelphia and Washington to come, so they are by no means sure of a division title, but they are certainly going to be hard to stop.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) over New England Patriots
New England need to fix their defence. And that is something that is rarely said about a Bill Belichick defence. They simply cannot get off the field and are 32nd in 3rd down stops. Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to look impressive with Roethlisberger back at the helm and play tough defence. Expect to see Troy Polamalu spending much more time around the line of scrimmage with the Patriots' lack of a legitimate deep threat. There will be big hits aplenty in this one - James Harrison and Brandon Meriweather have accounted for $120,000 in fines for crunching tackles during this season. The Patriots host Indianapolis next week and cannot afford to get caught looking ahead like they did last week.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Michael Vick experience is the most exciting show in the NFL today. If you have not seen his play this year, you absolutely must. In his previous incarnation at Atlanta, Vick was a run-first Quarterback with a habit of launching the ball pretty much anywhere, but his transformation into a pocket QB who can also run has been a successful one. You have to defend the pass first now, especially with the threats of Jackson and Maclin at WR. Last week, Vick led Philly to a close win over Indianapolis and looked like he could take off for 12 yards anytime he wanted. As for Washington, where to begin? After Shanahan mysteriously benched McNabb in the last two minutes against Detroit in favour of Rex Grossman, and then gave several different explanations afterwards, it is hard to know what to expect from the Redskins as they come off their bye week. McNabb has said that claims that he did not know the offence well enough are ridiculous, and apparently the air has been cleared between him and his coach, but we will see. In the reverse fixture, Washington came out on top, but they did not play well and knocked Vick out of the game. A healthy Vick should be too much for the Skins.
Last week: 8-4-1
Toby Durant
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