Buffalo are a better team than we think they are. Two over-time road losses in the last two weeks should give confidence to the winless Bills, whilst Chicago have been making opposing defences look great all year. Unless they have spent their bye week fixing the offensive-line problems, expect Cutler to be doing his best “deer in the middle of the M25” impression again.
San Diego Chargers (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS
San Diego finally got a win after putting up big numbers. Their special team is still a shambles, but not as much as this Texans' defence. Houston ranks dead last in pass defence, while the Chargers are doing great things against run. But the numbers have not gone with San Diego this year. Approach with care, Houston need the win too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over ATLANTA FALCONS
JOSH FREEMAN JUST WINS FOOTBALL GAMES!!! But maybe not this one. Matt Ryan is 16-1 in the Georgia Dome during the regular season and Roddy White is playing MVP level football right now. With the Saints looking themselves again, both teams need a win here to keep a nose ahead. I think Freeman, another MVP candidate, should keep this one close, but Atlanta pulls it out.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-9) over Arizona Cardinals
This is a clear stay away game. Favre got banged up again in Foxboro, Harvin is hurt and Brad Childress seems to have gone mad after cutting Moss four weeks after trading a 3rd round pick for him. Arizona have been terrible on the road and have a lot of issues at quarterback themselves, but Minnesota’s defence has not been anything like it has in previous years. I’m very unsure about this pick.
New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT LIONS
Rex Ryan talks a good game, but he coached a bad one last week. You do not call a fake on 4th and 18 in a clear field-position game. Expect a big Jets bounce back here - they will pound the football all game with Greene and LT while taking away Calvin Johnson and getting after Stafford. Look for Detroit to try and take away the run and make Sanchez beat them, but I don't think they can do it. As talented as Suh is, I just cannot see Detroit hanging in on this one.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) over Miami Dolphins
Baltimore have quietly won four of their last five, with the only loss coming in OT against New England. Miami have struggled to get Touchdowns recently, kicking 13 field goals in their last three games. Baltimore’s front 7 will swarm on the running game and make Henne put it up. And oh yeah, there’s a healthy Ed Reed back there.
New England Patriots (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
I’m worried about this one. The Patriots have been getting the breaks and playing mistake free football on offence while the defence has been in bend but don’t break mode. Mangini will have had this game highlighted when the schedules were announced, and with the bye week to prepare for another match-up against his old master, the Browns could have a few tricks up their sleeve. Then again, any of McCoy, Delhomme or Wallace really doesn’t scare me.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Saints are back. Drew Brees was in top form during the second half of the Halloween special vs Pittsburgh Sunday night, while the Panthers just stink. This line could be 14 and I would still take it. Carolina played them close in week 4 in the Superdome, but that was a different Saints team - this one looks like the defending Superbowl Champs.
New York Giants (-6.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Giants were rolling before their bye week, and are now rested up for a trip to noisy Qwest field. Seattle are a different team at home, so this is no sure thing. However, they are banged up again and the Giants have been playing good football on both sides of the ball. Hakeem Nicks is playing almost as well as Roddy White has recently.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Another tough one to call this week. Oakland have put up 92 points in their last 2 games while Kansas seem a little off. The Chiefs are 1st in rushing, last in passing so you know what their going to do - it just depends if Oakland can stop it. Darren McFadden is looking more and more like the 4th overall pick the Raiders spent on him in 2008 as he carves off 5.5 yards a carry.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
It does not matter who is on the end of his passes, Peyton Manning makes them look GOOD. The Eagles are better on defence than Houston, and Asante Samuel made his name on good performances against Manning, but the Colts will have too much here. Vick is starting, which makes this a must-watch game. However, expect the Eagles to be playing from behind for a lot of this game, and that opens things up for Freeney and Mathis to wreak havoc.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8) over Dallas Cowboys
Dallas are no longer an under-achieving good team. They are a bad team, and that is being nice. The problem is not just the absence of Tony Romo; if Garrard is launching touchdown passes to uncovered receivers, then you have got issues. Especially when you are going up to Lambeau to face a Green Bay team coming off the back of two massive wins. The Packers defence finally found its 2009 form in shutting out the Jets on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Carson Palmer is a bad quarterback and Pittsburgh eat bad QBs for breakfast. Do not let the stats fool you, Palmer isn’t the guy he used to be - his numbers have been put up when the game was already lost. The absence of Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith is clearly big for Pittsburgh, as seen by the inability to pressure Brees with the front three last week, but Cincy have very little about them this season.
Toby Durant
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