“In this league, this year, no body knows anything!” – Al Michaels
The legendary commentator was on the mark again. This season has been one of the most unpredictable in recent history. There were so many back-door covers and stunning performances (both bad and good) in week 10 that it was a picker's nightmare. The worst place for crazy outcomes is in both West divisions, where who is good and who is bad seems to change every week. Denver, having been abysmal in its last two games came out and hammered the Chiefs, while Seattle bounced back from awfulness to beat the Cardinals on the road.
Week 11 throws up some classic grudge matches and can’t miss games, so let’s get down to it. Home teams in caps.
Chicago Bears (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS (Thursday Night Sky Sports 2, 1:20am)
I am still not quite sure how, after losing both Pennington and Henne before the third quarter, Miami were able to hold on against the Titans last week. But they cannot survive a whole game with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback against a tough Bears defence. As for Chicago, their offensive line is much improved and largely kept Cutler clean against the Vikings. While Miami’s defence has been impressive at times, they will need to carry the offence through large portions of this game and I just do not think they can do it.
Oakland Raiders (+7) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Oakland have been playing well recently and are coming off a bye week against a shell-shocked Steelers team. Pittsburgh did not play badly on Sunday night, but their patchwork offensive line was exposed by New England, and I fully expect Oakland to use the same plan to get to Big Ben. The Steelers were also weaker against the run on Sunday with ends, Keisel and Smith, out and their absence is set to continue and should open things up for an impressive Darren McFadden.
NEW YORK JETS (-7) over Houston Texans (Sky Sports 2, 6:00pm)
The Texans really cannot stop anyone through either skill or luck. Sanchez picked up a knock against the Browns on Sunday, but battled through and showed good poise in escaping about five sacks in their over-time victory. The Jets have been poor recently and needed 74 minutes to beat (and cover against) Cleveland, but they have been winning. Houston’s frailties on defence are starting to be just too great for the offence to cover up. This could be the death nail in what had been a promising season as well as Gary Kubiak’s reign in Houston.
Baltimore Ravens (-10) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Baltimore had a chance to knock off Ryan and the Falcons last Thursday, but could not get the defensive stop they needed. It is not often that that is said about this Ravens team and you can be sure they spent the extra few days rest brooding, just waiting to get back out on the field. They are still top of the AFC North and amongst the best teams in the NFL. Now that Buffalo have got a win to their name, Carolina can rightfully take over the mantle of the league’s worst team. Clausen was not terrible last week, but he was hardly impressive either, and will need to show real signs that he can perform at the level expected from a starter if the Panthers are not to go after a QB come draft day.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) over Washington Redskins
This line is a little inflated after the disastrous Monday night performance from Washington’s defence, but they were truly abysmal in the hammering they took from Vick and the Eagles. But it does not get any easier with Chris Johnson, Randy Moss and Vince Young waiting to get stuck in. The Titans need a win here to keep pace in the division because the wild cards are almost certainly not coming from the AFC South this year. Another week for Moss to be integrated with the team. He did not see many targets in the loss to Miami, but was effective in keeping the safeties back and opening up room for Johnson. I expect to see a bit of a bounce back from Washington - if Haynesworth was ever going to be motivated to play hard it would be this game.
Detroit Lions (+6.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Detroit continue to play tough and keep games close, which is why I think that they will be able to cover here. Dallas benefited from a sloppy Giants performance on Sunday - receivers were running so open that Kitna looked like a pro-bowler. The pressure of not having won at home yet might get to the Cowboys here and a bad start will see the fans jump on the back of interim Head Coach Jason Garrett. Dez Bryant might be having the best rookie season for a WR since Randy Moss came into the league in 1998 - this guy is a serious ball player.
Green Bay Packers (-3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Here we go again. Favre is 11-1 at home with the Vikings, but this is probably going to be the last chance for Rodgers to beat Favre, and if you do not think he is pumped up to do a double over the old man, then you are crazy. Minnesota were poor in Chicago last week, while the Packers have had a much needed chance to rest up and get healthy. The Vikings will need the defensive line, which has perhaps been the most disappointing unit for them this year, to step up and pressure Rodgers, otherwise it could be a long day for the Vikes secondary. This will be a very close game and could well come down to who has the ball last.
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over CINNCINATI BENGALS
WARNING: GUS JOHNSON GAME! The explosive commentator has been involved in crazy finishes the last few weeks, culminating in the hail mary win for Jacksonville last week. This trend is one of the best things about the NFL. If you haven’t heard Gus Johnson call a game you need to watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj5HtJidMZ8
Buffalo finally got the win their recent play has deserved and will be riding high. The Colts left the back door open last week and the Bengals covered by a point in a game they were widely outplayed in. Palmer continues to take three quarters of football to warm up and it cannot be long before Marv Lewis makes a change there - it might be the only thing that can save his job. The Bills are 1-2 in the last three games and all have been decided by three points or less - I see no reason why this will not go along the same lines and even end in a Buffalo win if they can get Fred Jackson rolling like he was last week.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-1) over Cleveland Browns
Cleveland continue to play tough and, barring a fumble in OT, would have knocked off the Jets last week. Colt McCoy has made things happen and looked the consummate Pro since coming in. Of course, having the battering ram that is Peyton Hillis behind him has helped! Jacksonville got a much needed win against Houston last week in the aforementioned hail mary finish. That play works maybe once in 200 tries and the Jags got lucky, but they have started to click on offence now and Garrard is making good reads, while Mo-Jo is getting going in the back field and should be a touch too much for the Browns.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Kansas are nowhere near as good as they were just two weeks ago, but hosting Arizona might just be the tonic they need to get back on track in the wild AFC West. The Cardinals defence is playing so badly at the moment that it is overshadowing the shambles at quarterback, which is a very worrying situation to be in. Charles and Jones are still running hard, while Cassel has started to hook up with WR Dwayne Bowe. The pair have eight touchdowns in the last five games. This one could get embarrassing for Arizona.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-12) over Seattle Seahawks
A well rested Saints team, a packed out Superdome and an up and down Seahawks team that has lost heavily to the last two competitive teams they have played. This is a combination that Drew Brees could feast on. Since the second half against Pittsburgh, the Saints have looked like their superbowl-winning selves and need to start stringing big wins together as the NFC South is now the closest division in the NFL. Reggie Bush could be back to face his old USC coach Pete Carroll - it is probably best for the both of them if they do not get snapped together this weekend.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) over ST LOUIS RAMS
This is a game that the best team in the NFC should be winning. Matt Ryan was stunning in Thursday's win against the Ravens, and Roddy White continues to play at a high level. They should do well against a very iffy Rams secondary. However, the Rams are much tougher prospect at home, having gone 4-1 there so far this season and Bradford continues to impress. But the Rams have only scored 20+ points in a game once this year and you get the feeling 20 just will not cut it against the no frills, highly efficient football of Atlanta.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS
Troy Smith has got the starting job locked down in San Fran for now and has been quite impressive, at least in comparison to what has come before him. Tampa have traditionally struggled going out to the west coast but this is a young team playing with no fear. LeGarrette Blount is playing up to the first round billing he had before losing his head in Oregon, while Josh Freeman continues to impress. Kellen Winslow got his first touchdown of the year and once he starts to get involved more in this offence the Bucs will really start rolling.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts (Sky Sports 2, 9:15pm)
The marquee match up of the season. The best two quarterbacks of their generation etc etc. Enough has been written about Brady vs Manning to fill several libraries, so let us talk about other things. Sunday night was a coaching clinic from Bill Belichick as he devised a game plan to absolutely dominate the Steelers. The Patriots exposed a weak Steelers offensive line and could well do the same to a Colts line that has deteriorated from seasons past. But blitzing Manning is a very dangerous thing to do - he is hooking up with no-name receivers out there and making them look like superstars. This game could go either way and is a classic “Last team with the ball wins”. Normally I would take the points here but after seeing a fired up Brady put in a vintage performance last week, I am taking him and his 24 straight wins in Foxboro.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over New York Giants (Channel 4, 1:30am)
Michael Vick is now a serious MVP candidate after ripping into the Redskins on Monday night. He finished that game with a staggering 413 yards of offence and six touchdowns, and the most impressive thing was how he worked through his progressions. In his previous incarnation, if Vick’s first choice receiver was covered, he would pull it down and look to run. Now he is comfortable in the pocket, keeps his eyes down field and, only as a last choice, takes off. As for the Giants, it was rather fitting that the lights went out at the start of the second half against Dallas, as it was an ugly performance and is reminiscent of their end of season collapse last year. The winner of this game will have sole possession of the NFC East.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-10) over Denver Broncos
I have no idea what to think about the Broncos. They had been just awful until they started lighting it up against Chiefs. The Chargers gained ground in the AFC West last week despite not playing and have finished the season strongly under Norv Turner. Rivers is still the leading MVP candidate, but will continue to play without his favourite targets in Floyd and Gates. These games are usually high scoring affairs, but if the Chargers have sorted out their special teams woes, then that defence can smother any opposition.
Last Week: 5-9-0
Toby Durant
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